The Curious Ukraine/Russia War Negotiation.

Let’s talk about the Ukraine negotiations, if you call them that. 

-Tim Miller, Podcaster, The Bulwark.

No deals about Ukraine without Ukraine – and definitely no deals over Europe’s head!

-In a fiery Bundestag speech, Germany’s brand-new Chancellor Friedrich Merz 

What’s at stake here is 80 years of security agreements protecting Europe.  

-Michael Weiss, Podcast.

There must be no deal where Ukraine gives up territory. There must be no deal that rewards the aggressor. United States is not neutral and should not act as a mediator. 

-U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell.

(This blog is written from an American perspective.)

What makes the present Ukraine/Russia peace talks curious?

• There are no clear goals.

• The peace making steps are unidentified.

• If there is a process, no one seems to know.

• The parties are ill defined. Why is billionaire Jerod Kushner seated at the table?

• Who is the mediator and who are the negotiators? Vague.

• What is this 28-point peace deal dictated by Russia to the United States and then conveyed to Europe and Ukraine?

• Why is the US negotiator advising the Russian negotiator how to communicate with President Donald Trump.

What are the curious ingredients of ideal peacemaking?

• The dispute is clearly defined. Facts are distinguished from perspectives. Facts should generally agree. Perspectives are valued and may not agree.

• All parties are clearly identified.

• All stakeholders are identified. Some stakeholders may not be direct parties to the conflict.

• All interests and goals of each party are declared.

• There are no hidden agendas, hidden issues, no non-negotiables.

• There are no pre-conditions or lines in the sand.

• Each party has an effective negotiator. This effectiveness includes being creative, flexible and honest, plus, in the ideal, open. These effective negotiators are able to distinguish between positions and interests (needs). The negotiators are prepared and well planned.

• Another skill of an effective negotiator is being able to separate the people from the problem (as described in the famous book, Getting to Yes, listed in the “Resources”).

• Each party and negotiator knows their BATNA and WATNA (worst and best alternative to a negotiated agreement).

• There are no agreement drafts. The parameters of the discussion, of the agreement will be created by all parties in the beginning of the peacemaking process.

• The peacemaking process or negotiation is defined as a step-by-step series of discussions most likely to lead to a resolution.

• If a facilitator or mediator is used, they would be clearly neutral and unbiased.

Why is this situation and negotiation curious?

ho started this war?

It should be clear that Russia is the aggressor. And yet, Russia has the perspective that they had no choice because Ukraine provoked it. How? Ukraine was making moves to become part of the European Union and NATO. Russia could not tolerate another NATO country on their border. Putin believes the root causes of war is the 40 year NATO expansion.

Ramifications so far?

But for, this invasion, Finland and Sweden would probably not have joined NATO. But for this invasion, NATO countries would not be highly strengthening their military.

Is the United States an ally of Ukraine? 

This should be an easy answer since both countries belong to NATO. Under the Biden administration, the answer would be yes. Under the Trump administrations, it is unclear.

Did Biden give the US “all” when the war first began?

Each time Biden was asked, he would respond that the US is doing everything they can.  That was simply not true. After he said that, more and more sanctions were being launched. Ukraine has never received the weaponry that they wanted. They have received defensive weapons, not offensive.

What is the relationship between Putin’s Russia and the United States?

Each US President has tried to “reset” the relationship. Each President hoped that Russia would not be the enemy that they seemed to be. Remember that former President George W. Bush looked into the eyes of Putin and saw Putin’s soul who cared much about Russia.  Under former President Barak Obama with Hillary Clinton as the Secretary of State, they, too, tried to reset the relationship, unsuccessfully.

Under the Biden administration, it was clear. Russia is the invader and is the enemy.  

Under Trump, the relationship seems amorphous but leaning towards admiration and respect towards Putin. The relationship seems to depend on the whim of Trump. There is a mysterious personal relationship between Putin and Trump that dates back decades.   Some, even believe that Putin has some “dirt” on Trump so Trump is fearful.

Are both Putin and Trump bullies?

The answer is clear. They are. Bullies do not negotiate. Bullies threaten. They actually have much in common. Putin wants to restore that Russia has a sphere of influence over eastern Europe and Trump believes that the US should have the sphere of influence over the Americas, which explains Trump’s recent action to overthrow Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela.

How can negotiators manage a pathological liar such as Trump?

AI definition: That person is often called a pathological liar, also known as a compulsive liar or a mythomaniac, who lies compulsively, often without clear benefit, and may even believe their own fabrications, showing an inability or unwillingness to admit falsehoods despite evidence. This behavior can stem from underlying conditions like narcissistic or antisocial personality disorders and involves an inability to stop lying, even when it causes problems. 

AI management advice:

• Don’t lose your temper.

• Expect denial:  They may become enraged and express shock at the accusation.

• Remember that it’s not about you:   The person may be driven by an underlying personality disorder, anxiety, or low self-esteem.

• Be supportive

• Don’t engage them:   You can also let them know that you don’t want to continue the conversation when they’re being dishonest.

• Suggest medical help

Negotiators also need to manage Trump who speaks hyperbolically. 

He uses extremes and absolutes like never and always. On 12/12/25, he claimed that US seized the LARGEST tanker ever seized. The White House ballroom will be the best ever.

How to manage?

AI Advice: To effectively respond to a hyperbolic person, stay calm and grounded, avoid reacting emotionally, and gently guide the conversation by acknowledging their feelings while focusing on facts, setting boundaries, and asking clarifying questions to find the underlying issue rather than getting swept up in the exaggeration. It's about de-escalation, not debate….

Are threats a method of negotiation? 

Some negotiators would say no. They distinguish between “threats” and explaining “consequences of a no agreement situation.” Other negotiators declare that they would keep the Tactic of Threats in the negotiation toolbox and would use it sparingly. Bullies like Putin and Trump do not really negotiate. Instead, they threaten. In this case, Trump keeps threatening to “walk away” from the whole situation if Ukraine is not more agreeable. Putin threatens “full scale invasion” and subtly, the nuclear option.

(Throughout these negotiations, there are many references to Trump’s 1987 book The Art of the Deal. But the co-author Tony Schwartz claims that he wrote every word and he doubts whether Trump has read “a single page.” So this may explain why Trump’s threatening tactics differ from the themes of the book.)

Peacemaking

Who are the curious parties? 

To negotiate, one must first identify the parties. There is a sense of chaos. Some are direct and others indirect.  

Direct parties:

Russia: Yuri Viktorovich Ushakov is a Russian senior diplomat who has served as the aide to the president of Russia on foreign policy issues since 2012. Dmitry Sergeyevich Peskov is a Russian diplomat serving as the spokesman for Russian president Vladimir Putin since 2012. (He is married to a friend of Putin.)  What is the goal of Russia, more importantly, the goal of Putin? Stated or unstated, Putin’s goal is to take over Ukraine. He does not respect the independence of Ukraine.

Ukraine: President Zelensky has been the face of Ukraine during the entire war. Ukraine's lead negotiator is Rustem Umeroy has been meeting with Steve Witkoff. Ukraine wants to be part of the West including NATO and EU. Putin claims these efforts triggered the war.

NATO (including US) and European Union: These are separate entities but their views are consistent. Both have been enraged with the December 2025 new “US national security strategy” berating Europe. EU Council President Antonio Costa has said that post-WWII alliances have shifted and that EU must take care of itself, protecting itself against enemies and so-called allies. He believes that Trump and Vance are embracing Europe’s nationalist parties.

United States: The US as a party is curious and complex. It would be logical to treat NATO including the US as one party. Trump sees the situation very differently. He may see himself as a one person show “peacemaker." Recently, he has spoken ill of Western Europe, calling it “decaying, losing its culture to immigrants and guided by weak politicians." So, the US curiously is many parties:

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hawkish on Russia and sees them as gangsters.   Rubio seems to be more trusted by Ukraine, NATO and US Congress than the other listed parties.

• Vice President JD Vance is an isolationist and is desperate for a win so he can be anointed the leader of MAGA (Make America Great Again). The US has weapons and intelligence that Ukraine needs.

• Steve Witkoff, White House Envoy: Witkoff is a Presidential golfing buddy. Oddly, Witkoff seems to be representing Russia’s side.

  According to Wikipedia: Since 2025, Steve Witkoff (real estate developer, his son manages Trump’s crypto business) has served as the United States special envoy to the Middle East and special envoy for peace missions. He has also acted as a de facto envoy to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Witkoff has been focusing on the territorial elements of a deal.

• Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll is an ally of VP JD Vance.

• President Donald Trump: Trump may be a separate party from the US, in a way. Trump seems to hate Ukraine and has visceral contempt for Zelensky, possibly arising from the term one impeachment that involved both Ukraine and Zelensky. Trump’s views are contradictory to that of the US where 70% see Russia as the villain, do not want to give land, and advocate sending offensive weapons like tomahawks. Further, Trump seems to be anti-NATO, yet 60% of MAGA Republicans favor NATO and 62% of the group “support sending US weapons to Ukraine and 60% support the US responding with military force if a NATO ally in Europe is attacked, according to The Reagan National Defense Survey, Ronald Reagan Institute. Why is Trump, the populist president, not listening to them?    

• Jared Corey Kushner: Maybe the most curious party?  Jared Corey Kushner is an American businessman and investor. He is the son-in-law of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, through his marriage to Ivanka Trump and served as a senior advisor in his father-in-law's first administration from 2017 to 2021. He is 44 years. According to Forbes, his net worth is $1 billion. In Miami, he heads a multi-billion-dollar private equity firm and is part owner of his family real estate business.

Kushner has reappeared as a high stakes player in foreign policy; albeit, no formal title.  Trump declared that Kushner is involved because he is smart and knows the players to this dispute. One might view him as an unpaid, informal adviser?  Kushner sees himself as a deal-maker more than a diplomat.

He is often accused of conflicts of interest and profiting from policy proposals. (His father, Charles, received a full pardon during the first Trump administration. Charles Kushner was convicted of 18 counts in 2005, pleading guilty to tax evasion, making false statements to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), and witness tampering. He was sentenced to 24 months in prison and served 14 months before being pardoned by President Trump in 2020. )

What are the curious goals of the parties?

The next step is to discern the goals of each party hoping for peacemaking purposes, there are commonalities.

Putin’s Goal: Since Putin is a dictator and suppresses all opposition, it is difficult to know what is Russia’s goal. So, the focus must be Putin’s goal. Putin’s overall goal is to re-establish the “sphere of influence” that once belonged to USSR. In fact, he would like to create another version of the USSR.   

According to Wikipedia: The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), commonly known as the Soviet Union, was a transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 until it dissolved in 1991. During its existence, it was the largest country by area, extending across eleven time zones and sharing borders with twelve countries, and the third-most populous country.

The goal of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is to acquire all of Ukraine that Putin feels is rightly Russian. Putin’s goal is to win. His goal is not peace and is not negotiation.

Ukraine’s goal is to reestablish their borders and independence. They desire to be affiliated with Western Europe, to join the European Union and NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seems super tired of these curious negotiations where Trump seems to be ok with giving up Ukrainian land.

European Union/Commission (EU)(27 members-450M people): President Ursula von der Leyen realizes that relationships, especially that of the United States, are in flux. Her overall goal is a unified Europe including Ukraine. The goal for this 4 year war is “a lasting peace with real security guarantees.” It must be so solid that “it does not sow the seeds for the next conflict.” Further, that Russian assets must be immobilized to be reserved to rebuild Ukraine. 

Trump’s goal: Trump is surely a “strongman,” maybe a wannabe dictator like the people he admires like China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin. Trump’s goal may be distinguishable from the goals of the United States. Oddly, Trump seems to be obsessed with winning the Nobel Peace Prize as former President Barak Obama did. Trump claims he has solved many wars just in his first year of being President. He wants to end the Russia/Ukraine war seemingly at any cost…just end it.

Regrettably, Trump’s goals can be elusive. He often emphasizes “theater” and “performance.” Instead of strategic thinking, Trump is often about personal aggrandizement. He has the propensity to change his mind and to think erratically.

Curiously, Trump has a particular animus with Zelensky. Trump seems to link Zelensky with Trump’s first term Impeachment which focused on Ukraine dealings.

Trump’s bullying, harsh, uncivil language and cruelty upsets the negotiators and they do not know what to do.

They should realize that Trump is all about projection:

• He calls Joe Biden "Sleepy," but Trump has been caught sleeping or dozing off in many ceremonies.

• He calls Europe decaying and run by weak leaders; yet, that seems to describe Trump.

• He calls the mayor of London horrible, disgusting, and vicious and yet many especially in light of the ICE raids and drug boat bombing as such.

• He calls the Illinois governor a big fat slob, because Trump is.

• He call the Chicago mayor low IQ, because Trump is (check his SAT scores 1965).

• He thinks Somalia STINKS, but litigator E. Jean Carroll says he does. Trump called people from Somalia “garbage” and declares “they contribute nothing, I don’t want them in our country.”

• He calls Hillary Clinton "Crooked Hillary," but he is.

• He calls Senator Ted Cruz"Lyin' Ted," because he does CHRONICALLY.

• He called Kaitlan Collins stupid and nasty. Ff course, he is.

• He called another reporter Piggy. First, is he in elementary school? Second, if there is a person who looks like Piggy, it is he. Third, we love our piggies.

United States goal: One of the goals of the US is peace. Another goal is no US troops on the ground fighting anywhere. They want Ukraine to be a sovereign, independent democracy. US views Putin as the invader, as the enemy. US considers Ukraine an ally and hopefully able to join NATO and EU.

NATO and EU’s goal is to contain Russia and to include Ukraine. Many consider the creation of NATO post-WWII as the reason there has been basically peace in Western Europe. US has been the leader of NATO for decades but now under Trump 2.0, Trump is presenting US as a mediator, not an ally. NATO is worried and most of the Western European countries are building their militaries.

NATO is frustrated with Trump and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff (who seems to be advocating for Russia). Trump seems to be doing his own thing. He seems to see himself as a neutral broker. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has tried to smooth over the differences saying he has excellent contact with Trump. Trump seems to be obsessed with renewing Russia economic ties.

Jared Corey Kushner’s goal: As stated above it is curious why Kushner is involved-more curious than his involvement in the Mideast peace plan. Since Kushner is a business person, his goal must be to include or expand his business in this part of Europe?

What is the role of US in peacemaking?

This is curious. On the surface, the US should be a party as part of NATO. During Trump 1.0, he was almost ready to withdraw US from NATO. He had/has a dislike for NATO, maybe a dislike of partnerships? Trump sees himself as powerful and separate from NATO. He seems himself as a master peacemaker. He believe he has orchestrated many peace plans solving many wars. So, somehow Trump views himself as a master peacemaker, as a master mediator. No one really sees the US/Trump as a mediator in this dispute. In fact, many believe his relationship with Putin makes him biased towards Putin, not necessarily biased towards Russia.

How does one create a peace plan? It seems most logical that one brings all the parties together to initially draft concept papers that might lead to an agreement. But, this has become a curious process. Some believe that Trump and the US is colluding with Russia to draft the first 28-point agreement with no input from the other parties, most importantly, Ukraine. Then, by threatening to pull support or walk away, Trump/US threatens Ukraine to accept.

What is the relevant history or background to this dispute?

What is the Budapest Agreement? In 1994, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons which it had inherited from the Soviet Union. This was done through the Budapest Memorandum, a security assurance agreement signed with Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. In exchange for transferring the warheads to Russia for dismantlement, Ukraine received guarantees from the other signatories to respect its independence, sovereignty, and existing borders. 

Interesting because the countries struggled with the terms “assurances” and “guarantees.” There appeared to be a translation issue in which Ukraine thought they were receiving guarantees but received assurances.

What did NATO including the US do when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014?  They issued sanctions but basically nothing. This lack of action set the stage for the later invasion of Ukraine.

What did NATO including the US do when Russia annexed Donetsk and Luhansk? The answer is basically nothing setting the stage for the future Ukraine invasion. Russia formally declared its annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk in September 2022, but this has not been recognized by Ukraine or the international community. Russia has stated that any peace deal must include its recognition of sovereignty over the annexed territories. 

What did NATO including US do when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008? Basically, nothing.   US sent humanitarian aid and sent Navy ships into the Black Sea. French President Nicolas Sarkozy negotiated an end to hostilities after 5 days of war.

Is it any wonder that Ukraine is doubtful and suspicious about this present negotiation?

The Curious Path Forward.

It is past time for all of the parties to take a step back and reassess.

Step One: Who are the parties? In the ideal, Ukraine, Russia, and NATO should be the most important parties at the table. Further, Trump should be persuaded to throw all of US support behind NATO letting them take the lead. Trump and his idiosyncratic ways can be refocused to other parts of the world.

Step Two: Distinguish between facts and perspectives. The fact is that Ukraine is a sovereign nation. Russia invaded Ukraine. The reasons for the invasion become perspectives on which parties will never agree so there should be no waste of time trying to.

Step Three: What are the goals of each party? Seemingly all parties want the war and killings to end.

Step Four: Are the parties in the negotiation mood? If they are in the negotiation mood, then they will expect compromise, expect give and take, be able to manage tangible and intangible issues that they want to settle. If any of these elements are missing, this may not be the best time to negotiate.

Step Five: If necessary, identify a neutral facilitator or mediator. Any disputing party cannot fulfill this role. Maybe someone from the United Nations?

“Here’s a simple description of what peace should look like in Ukraine: a sovereign nation, its borders protected by international security guarantees, that is part of the European Union and rebuilding its economy with big investments from the United States and Europe.” - 12/12/25 The Washington Post, Opinion, David Ignatius.

Resources:

Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In  May 3, 2011

by Roger Fisher (Author), William L. Ury (Author), Bruce Patton (Author)

See Recommended Books under “Blogs” drop down menu.   Clicking on any book will lead one to the discounted Amazon site.

Roy J. Lewicki is the author of 'Essentials of Negotiation', published 2015 under ISBN 9780077862466 and ISBN 0077862465.  Publisher: McGraw Hill Higher Education

The Conflict Resolution Training Program, Leader’s Manual,  ISBN:  0-7879-6077-2.  Prudence Bowman Kestner and Larry Ray